Real-time geopolitical analysis

WHERE
DOES IT
HIT?

Type any geopolitical event or financial scenario. Get a blast radius: every exposed company mapped by supply chain, SEC filings, and historical reaction.

EVENT
MY STOCKS
0/3
Simple
20+ companies · Haiku brief · ~$0.005
🔍
Advanced
20+ companies · Sonnet brief · ~$0.035
// Try: North Korea ICBM · US-China tariffs · AI bubble · Taiwan Strait blockade
Not financial advice. Simulation accuracy varies and is based solely on the methodology described on the About page.
Market-moving events
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 Live Event Mode
Analyses a real, ongoing event using live market prices, SEC 10-K filings, and historical analogues. Use this when a headline just broke and you want to know which stocks are in the blast radius right now.
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geo db company db graph sec edgar yfinance gnews query understand map universe filter enrich brief
deterministic haiku reasoning claude brief external source
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PREVIOUS ANALYSES
MODEL ACCURACY
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How it works
FIVE STEPS TO IMPACT
01
Enter the event
Type any geopolitical event or financial scenario. War, sanctions, trade deals, bubbles, coups. Live or simulated.
02
Geo and company mapping
A static geography database identifies exposed companies by region and chokepoint instantly. No API call, no latency. A 198+ company scenario database fills the rest, now with Nordic tickers (Oslo Børs) included.
03
Reasoning filter
Before any company is scored, a reasoning step maps the actual transmission mechanism. Which sectors have a genuine causal link, and which ones just share a keyword.
04
Score the blast
Each company is scored on supply chain depth, audited SEC revenue exposure (XBRL geo segments and Exhibit 21 subsidiary jurisdictions), sector sensitivity, OFAC sanctions exposure, and event severity. Beneficiaries flagged too.
05
Historical context
yfinance pulls how similar events moved these stocks, and a momentum-confirmation factor drives the direction call, measured at a 66.9% hit rate across 34 historical events. In simulation mode, 94 calibrated scenarios project sector-level moves scaled by severity and relationship context.
Sebastian
Dahle Roda
BI Norwegian Business School
BSc Finance · 3rd year
22 years old · Oslo
Finance × AI V1 in 2 days SEC + OFAC audited Claude-assisted

Every time a geopolitical headline breaks, the same question follows: which companies are actually in the blast radius? Most tools stop at the news. This one maps the equity exposure across supply chains, SEC filings, and historical price reactions, and hands you an answer in under a minute.

The engine runs in five stages. A static geography database instantly identifies companies by region and chokepoint with no API call and no latency, now including a curated Oslo Børs ticker set alongside the SEC universe. Before any company is selected, a reasoning step analyzes the event structure: what is the actual transmission mechanism, which sectors have a genuine causal link, and which ones just share a keyword. This filters out the noise that most automated tools include. A database of 198+ companies with scenario and sector tags then handles most lookups instantly, cutting unnecessary AI calls. Revenue exposure is no longer a keyword match: SEC XBRL geographic segment data and Exhibit 21 subsidiary jurisdictions are parsed directly from the filings, and mentions are capped so a passing reference can't outweigh real exposure. An OFAC-backed sanctions screen (SDN and Consolidated lists, fuzzy-matched) flags direct sanctions exposure for free, no API key required. Finally, yfinance pulls how similar events moved these stocks historically, not as prediction, but as pattern context from analogous crises, sharpened by a momentum-confirmation factor that drives the directional call.

The cost structure was engineered deliberately. Different models are used based on task intensity: lightweight classification runs on Haiku at a fraction of a cent, while the intelligence brief that synthesizes everything uses Sonnet. Scenario simulations project sector-level moves using a database of 94 calibrated historical scenarios, scaled by event severity and relationship context. Enrichment runs in parallel, so a full run finishes in seconds, not minutes. A full advanced analysis costs around three cents.

The model is backtested, not just asserted: 266 predictions across 34 historical events, a 66.9% directional hit rate, and a 0.43 rank correlation between predicted and realized moves, each confidence score in the UI is the measured hit rate for that call type, not a guess. Ideas that didn't hold up, like an ex-ante sector factor, are documented as rejected rather than quietly dropped.

I built the first version over two days during my second year at BI Norwegian Business School, where I study finance. I'm now in my third year, 22, and still building on it. I had no prior full-stack experience. Claude was the collaborator throughout, less like using a tool and more like thinking out loud with someone who could immediately turn the idea into working code. The bottleneck shifted from implementation to judgment: what actually matters, what to cut, what to build next.

The result is something I use myself. When a sanctions package drops or a conflict escalates, I open this before I open anything else. If you are a recruiter, investor, or just someone who finds this useful, reach out.